Tuesday, May 09, 2006



Rasmussen polls from April have finally been published. As reported by Polinaut:

Hatch over Pawlenty 49% to 39%
Lourey over Pawlenty 43% to 40%
Kelley over Pawlenty 43% to 38%

"Some other candidate" registers between 6 and 8%.

On the Senate side, apparently Rasmussen has Klobuchar over Kennedy, 45/43, and Kennedy over Bell 44/33. In this race, I don't know that I'd trust those numbers - they're wildly different from two months ago and not much has changed since then. Given that Rasmussen's numbers in the Gubernatorial race have trended steadily upward for the DFLers, that 33% for Bell might be little more than noise.

But for Pawlenty to be trailing not one, not two, but THREE DFLers six months out...hoo boy :)

Blogger eb said:
Don't forget the undecided numbers:

From the poll:

39% Pawlenty
49% Hatch
6% Some other candidate
6% Not sure

40% Pawlenty
43% Lourey
8% Some other candidate
8% Not sure

38% Pawlenty
43% Kelly
8% Some other candidate
11% Not sure
Blogger MN Campaign Report said:
While it's true there will be undecideds from here until about, oh, six hours before Election Day, historically about two-thirds of true undecideds vote for the challenger. If those numbers hold until Election Day, the DFL will be in extremely good shape. I'm willing to grant that this is a pretty big IF, but it's an extremely good sign at this point. Especially from a right-leaning firm like Rasmussen.
Blogger rew said:
Is that true? I seem to remember that undecided thing being metioned before the last presidential election, and that didn't turn out true.

I thought undecided usually went to the incumbent.
Blogger MN Campaign Report said:
I didn't read too far into the 2004 results - too painful after several months without a weekend or a day off. It's possible that the Kerry/Bush undecideds shifted the historical paradigm. But several times during the campaign, our bosses on the campaign team cited a 60-65% bias for the challenger among undecideds.
Blogger Ag said:
I would have to dig some to double check this, but Kos said when he was here that the 04 election was the first time in history when the "independent/undecided" group went heavily with the challenging candidate who ended up losing the election. So, they did vote for Kerry, but the GOP base turnout was much stronger than normal which was decisive in states like Ohio. Something to keep in mind.

From everything I have read MCR is right about 2/3rds of the undecideds going for a challenger. This does not mean that they will go with the DFL challenger however.
Blogger MN Campaign Report said:
The other valid point worth making here is that this is a non-presidential election year. It's more heavily tilted toward base turnout as opposed to appealing to the moderate undecideds who turn the tide in presidential elections. So this year above others, the 2/3-of-undecideds-to-challengers may not have as much of an influence - especially without a gay-hate amendment on the ballot to bolster the right-wing base vote.
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