Tuesday, April 25, 2006

 

With a Rather Large Grain of Salt

I fully admit this: I'm reluctant to post this information. Given the flaring tempers and heated opinions on the DFL gubernatorial race, as well as my role in these tussles...it gave me pause when I received an email update from the Kelley Campaign containing delegate numbers.

So here's the disclaimer: Before you read any further, take these numbers as you would from the campaign itself - with a grain of salt. Accept their rationale for these numbers as well for what it is - the result of a great deal of hard work being done by human beings who care about what they're doing. Call it shilling for my former boss if you want, but hey, you get the same email updates I get, right? Has there been anything interesting lately? Commenters...start your flamethrowers!

Per the Kelley Campaign's current numbers:
Mike Hatch: 333
Steve Kelley: 280.5
Becky Lourey: 187
Uncommitted/Undecided: 555

I've removed the campaign's percentages based on these numbers because they appear to be using the wrong denominator. It's possible they've contacted about 1145 of the delegates, and that's what the percentages are based on. Their numbers are still their numbers, however. The campaign's rationale for trusting these numbers:
Why Trust Our Numbers? It’s true--there are many numbers flying around and different campaigns seem to have different interpretations. It is also true that nothing is for sure until that first ballot at the state convention. And there is always room for human error.

We feel confident, however, that our count reflects the reality among delegates. We have been conservative about our numbers. We are including in our “committed delegates” count only those people who have been elected in a named sub-caucus, or who have expressed publicly their support for a particular candidate.
--Kelley Campaign Newsletter
The message goes on to provide some anecdotal evidence of inaccuracies elsewhere, but in the interests of fairness to other campaigns, you'll have to just sign up for the Kelley Campaign's newsletter if you want to read those.

Some thoughts on these numbers:
  • If they're anywhere near accurate, the Convention will be interesting. They're not wildly unrealistic, in any case: all three candidates have bases of support among delegates and will try to build from them into the undecideds
  • Speaking of undecideds - where they go, so does the endorsement. Whoever does the best job of at least getting them to lean one way or the other will have a great chance in June. I like that the campaign is confortable enough with its delegate outreach to admit that a lot of delegates will most likely arrive in Rochester on June 9th still decidedly undecided.
So there you have it! Thoughts? Anyone? I can't imagine an evening with crickets on this one.

Comments:
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Blogger Northern Debater said:
No matter what these numbers reveal- the biggest factor is going to be who snuck delegates in, in the undecided subcaucases. I know a lot of "undecideds" who took that route, despite a clear favorite in the governor's race. All I know is I'm bringing a pillow and a blankie for saturday.
 
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