Wednesday, March 01, 2006


Patterns, Patterns, Everywhere: Rasmussen Poll

New Rasmussen poll on the gubernatorial race. I don't deny a certain pleasure at the numbers:

Hatch: 45%
Pawlenty: 40%

Kelley: 42%
Pawlenty: 42%

A continuance of the pattern we saw in the recent Senate poll - now BOTH Democrats are either ahead or dead even with the Republican opponent. This also represents a big bump for Senator Kelley, as he continues to build momentum going into the caucuses. More highlights from the poll:

Pawlenty: 57/??
Hatch: 60/31
Kelley: 47/26 (27 unsure)

Name recognition, name recognition, name recognition. The more people learn about the Senator, the more they like what they see. The poll also notes job performance numbers for Pawlenty of 49/49 approve/disapprove, as well as that the poll was conducted before the Dubai port scandal that had such a deletirious effect on President Bush's approval rating.

How does the saying go? When your opponent is drowning, toss him an anvil? President Bush could be that anvil in 2006. Now if only we could get Rasmussen to spell Kelley's name correctly.

Blogger North Star Politics said:
Did Rasmussen not poll for Doran and Lourey?
Blogger MN Campaign Report said:
They included notes about the other candidates in the article, but my somewhat fuzzy memory is that Rasmussen includes only the two top-polling candidates from each party, or the opposition party in the case of an incumbent. If anyone knows better please correct me.
Blogger mike said:
Did the include Peter Hutchinson? It would seem kind of silly to waste time on a poll if it wasn't going to include a candidate from a party that recived 37 amd 16% of the vote the last two elections. Clearly even if the parties support gets cut in half it would have the potential to impact the race significantly. For that matter Sue Jeffers is likely to get 2-5% of the vote as she plays to here nich crowd.

I'm of the mind that at this point the only difference in the Kelley and Hatch polls is the margain of error, and really all that can be mesured so far is the willingness of the public to move on from Tim Pawlenty.

In that light the polls are a very encouraging sign as they indicate the public is willing to go in a new direction.
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