Thursday, February 02, 2006

 

Improvised post

I was reading Residual Forces and left a comment - but it quickly turned into a post for myself. Sigh...blogging.

Now you tell me if I’m still supposed to believe that Democrats outnumber Republicans. Source: DLC

The purpose of this memorandum is to begin to lay out what Democrats need to do to forge the kind of broad based center-left coalition of core and swing voters that we need to win in 2006 and 2008. The bottom line is this: because there are more self-identified conservatives than liberals in the electorate, if Republicans win all conservatives, Democrats need to win all of the self-identified liberals and more than seven of every 10 self-identified moderates just to break even. That is not an ideological statement, it’s simple arithmetic. Simply put, Democrats cannot win unless they build a coalition of all liberals and most moderates.

Emphasis mine

I, however, have to disagree with your analysis. The DLC is correct in a literal sense- there are more self-identified “Conservatives” than “Liberals” out there. However, the Republican Party has done a great job over the last 20 years making “Liberal” in and of itself a dirty word. This analysis is akin to Peter Hutchinson saying he has a chance to win the governorship because more Minnesotans are independent than belong to either major political party.

The truth of the matter is, forget about self-described “Conservatives” and “Liberals” - in Minnesota, DFL membership does outnumber GOP membership - and in this climate, I don't think we can expect many DFLers to cross the line and vote for Republicans in 2006. The DLC is looking at the national picture and forgets about local and state-level elections as a key to national strategy. I.e., they suck, but that’s another argument. They also forget about leaners - independents who generally vote one way or the other.

All this is to say nothing about how to impress those moderate "center-left" voters - try to moderate to where they are, or pull them toward a strong progressive vision? One might argue that moderating toward their views will leave a sour taste in their mouths and drive them away. But I digress.

So it’s an argument worth having, whether Dems outnumber Reps or vice versa. But saying “Conservatives outnumber Liberals” has little to no logical connection to that argument.

In other news, it's really a shame that this MDE post got buried by Wetterling and Rowley/Marko news - it's really quite a positive look at the state of the Kelley campaign. Lots of high-profile Dems across the state are supporting the campaign, both in word and in checkbook. Hatch nothing - Kelley's people are doing a great job in the traditional caucus process, aggressive fundraising, and they're learning very quickly about engaging the netroots too.

I fully expect a smear campaign by the state Republican Party and their minions any time soon.

In other news, it now appears Patty Wetterling will run in the 6th - good. She's our best chance at winning, regardless of Tinklenberg's claim of a promise she wouldn't. This whole line rings hollow to me.

Also, Coleen Rowley has a DFL challenger for the primary. I've said it before, she's a bumbling candidate with a bumbling campaign. If DFLers in the 2nd want bumbling to face John Kline, at least now they have a choice. Regardless of her politics (supporting Randy Kelly might not have been the smartest thing to do, but at least it's over) at least Sharon Marko knows what she's doing.

Comments:
----------------------------------------------
Blogger Ted said:
Hey cool blog, even if it is sometimes improvised.Come visit mine and maybe we can swap links. I grew up near Rochester, so I keep on MN stuff
 
----------------------------------------------
Blogger Truth and Justice said:
Ah yes...'bumbling' Coleen with national recognition, can be counted on to address issues and isn't Democratic lite or a Kelly support...you're correct we do have a choice... thanks for pointing out the obvious.
 
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Google
Web
MNCR