Thursday, February 02, 2006
Now you tell me if I’m still supposed to believe that Democrats outnumber Republicans. Source: DLC
The purpose of this memorandum is to begin to lay out what Democrats need to do to forge the kind of broad based center-left coalition of core and swing voters that we need to win in 2006 and 2008. The bottom line is this: because there are more self-identified conservatives than liberals in the electorate, if Republicans win all conservatives, Democrats need to win all of the self-identified liberals and more than seven of every 10 self-identified moderates just to break even. That is not an ideological statement, it’s simple arithmetic. Simply put, Democrats cannot win unless they build a coalition of all liberals and most moderates.
I, however, have to disagree with your analysis. The DLC is correct in a literal sense- there are more self-identified “Conservatives” than “Liberals” out there. However, the Republican Party has done a great job over the last 20 years making “Liberal” in and of itself a dirty word. This analysis is akin to Peter Hutchinson saying he has a chance to win the governorship because more Minnesotans are independent than belong to either major political party.
The truth of the matter is, forget about self-described “Conservatives” and “Liberals” - in Minnesota, DFL membership does outnumber GOP membership - and in this climate, I don't think we can expect many DFLers to cross the line and vote for Republicans in 2006. The DLC is looking at the national picture and forgets about local and state-level elections as a key to national strategy. I.e., they suck, but that’s another argument. They also forget about leaners - independents who generally vote one way or the other.
All this is to say nothing about how to impress those moderate "center-left" voters - try to moderate to where they are, or pull them toward a strong progressive vision? One might argue that moderating toward their views will leave a sour taste in their mouths and drive them away. But I digress.
So it’s an argument worth having, whether Dems outnumber Reps or vice versa. But saying “Conservatives outnumber Liberals” has little to no logical connection to that argument.In other news, it's really a shame that this MDE post got buried by Wetterling and Rowley/Marko news - it's really quite a positive look at the state of the Kelley campaign. Lots of high-profile Dems across the state are supporting the campaign, both in word and in checkbook. Hatch nothing - Kelley's people are doing a great job in the traditional caucus process, aggressive fundraising, and they're learning very quickly about engaging the netroots too.
I fully expect a smear campaign by the state Republican Party and their minions any time soon.
In other news, it now appears Patty Wetterling will run in the 6th - good. She's our best chance at winning, regardless of Tinklenberg's claim of a promise she wouldn't. This whole line rings hollow to me.
Also, Coleen Rowley has a DFL challenger for the primary. I've said it before, she's a bumbling candidate with a bumbling campaign. If DFLers in the 2nd want bumbling to face John Kline, at least now they have a choice. Regardless of her politics (supporting Randy Kelly might not have been the smartest thing to do, but at least it's over) at least Sharon Marko knows what she's doing.
Hey cool blog, even if it is sometimes improvised.Come visit mine and maybe we can swap links. I grew up near Rochester, so I keep on MN stuff
Truth and Justice said:
Ah yes...'bumbling' Coleen with national recognition, can be counted on to address issues and isn't Democratic lite or a Kelly support...you're correct we do have a choice... thanks for pointing out the obvious.