Wednesday, November 23, 2005


SD43 Special Results: Bonoff wins

I wasn't too hopeful for SD19 anyway.

With 54.5% of the vote, Terri Bonoff will be the next State Senator from District 43. I had a chance to drop by the Bonoff campaign's phonebank operation last night, and Terri and her volunteers were going whole hog until the very last minute. Congratulations to Ms. Bonoff and best wishes for the next legislative session - it should be an interesting one.

In terms of analysis on the race, there are some interesting items to note and some that aren't so interesting. According to the Secretary of State's results, turnout was a hair under 21%, so a lot could change before next year's regular election when turnout triples or quadruples.

Now, I'm sure my colleagues on the Right in the blogosphere and local mainstream media will wave this result off, calling Bonoff's victory a result of low turnout...wait. I thought low turnout benefitted Republicans? What's going on here?

With the caveat of low turnout (and thus less statistical significance) it is of interest that Terri Bonoff did extremely well in Judy Johnson's hometown of Plymouth, beating the Mayor in five precincts, and holding her own in the other twelve. It helps that not a single precinct in Minnetonka went for Johnson. Very difficult to win elections when you can't get traction outside your hardcore base.

The conclusion I draw from this is that Plymouth seems (again, in a small sample) to be trending bluer and bluer along with the entire 3rd Congressional District. As population increases, social and community services become more and more important, and electorates will trend toward DFLers, who make their support for these services very public. Good signs all around for the DFL.

Now if only we can take that election two days after Christmas. Mr. Pawlenty's comments about the Republican Party being on the ropes will be the first raindrops in the barrel going into 2006.

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