Monday, November 07, 2005


Latest Zogby poll on MN races

Latest info from WSJ/Zogby Poll:

Pawlenty is stuck between 45 and 46%. This is both his ceiling and his floor. Republicans in Minnesota aren't about to vote for anyone else, and the lack of movement from his election numbers in 2002 shows that four years of his leadership have done nothing to entice independents into supporting him.

The poll also shows Mike Hatch at 49.6%, Steve Kelley at 42.2% and Becky Lourey at 44% against Pawlenty frozen around 45.5%. I like the fact that the poll is actually asking about the candidates in the race this time, and am thoroughly satisfied to see all three candidates within the MoE this early, most especially Kelley - Mike Hatch obviously has the statewide name-recognition advantage, and I think a lot of Democrats remember Sen. Lourey's 2002 bid fondly. Positive name recognition for Steve Kelley as the campaign moves toward the caucuses will only drive his numbers northward. Make sure you listen to his most recent interview on Inside Minnesota Politics.

On the Senate side, Zogby shows Amy Klobuchar over Mark Kennedy, 49-43.2, Ciresi over Kennedy 46.6-43.3, and even Ford Bell over Kennedy by a hair, 43.9-43.5. It's interesting to see Patty Wetterling falling out of the top three contenders, but a crowded field will do that. I would love to see how close she is to Kennedy as well. John Zogby's Democratic leanings aside, it's fantastic to see THREE DFLers ahead of the only Republican the Washington Cabal will allow to run. Note that both Pawlenty and Kennedy are stuck at their numbers - a solid Republican base, and no support from Independents. All in all, a positive picture.

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